History of our Predictions

In 2009 our research indicated that certain Iasoberg patterns correlated with severe weather activity in continental USA. The general iasoberg output algorithms were then modified to identify these patterns annually on a daily basis. A study was then initiated in 2009 that attempted to correlate the outcome of revised model which forecast potential severe weather day in continental USA and the NOAA severe weather reports for a particular day and year. A forecast for each of the subsequent years, including 2023, have been generated. The 2023 forecast identifies days that are potential severe weather days, where these days are identified for a large number of hail event activity and those with the potential for tornado outbreaks. The forecast also has 25 of these days, specifically nominated, as days that are a prediction (based on the output of the model) for large number of hail event activity. An analysis of these forecasts versus the actual reports have demonstrated the following correlations. 2009 Iasoberg Model Forecast • 29 of 46 days with 75 or more large hail events were forecast by the model • The highest number of hail events that occurred on a day in 2009 (283) occurred on 2009 04 10 which was identified by the model 2010 Iasoberg Model Forecast • 9 of 18 days with 75 or more large hail events were forecast by the model • The highest number of hail events that occurred on a day in 2010 (183) occurred on 2009 04 10 which was identified by the model 2011 Iasoberg Model Forecast • 25 of 43 days with 75 or more large hail events were forecast by the model • The highest number of hail events that occurred on a day in 2011 (266) occurred on 2011 05 24 which was identified by the model 2012 Iasoberg Model Forecast • 10 of 24 days with 75 or more large hail events were forecast by the model • The highest number of hail events that occurred on a day in 2012 (303) occurred on 20120302 which was one day away from a forecast day identified by the model 2013 Iasoberg Model Forecast • 8 of 19 days with 75 or more large hail events were forecast by the model • The highest number of hail events that occurred on a day in 2013 (148) occurred on 2013 03 18 which was identified by the model For the Excel files that support these findings: Download Hail Excel file1 ; Download Hail Excel file2