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© iasoberg.com 2013

History of our Predictions

In   2009   our   research   indicated   that   certain   Iasoberg   patterns   correlated   with   severe   weather   activity   in continental   USA.      The   general   iasoberg   output   algorithms   were   then   modified   to   identify   these   patterns annually   on   a   daily   basis.     A   study   was   then   initiated   in   2009   that   attempted   to   correlate   the   outcome   of revised   model   which   forecast   potential   severe   weather   day   in   continental   USA   and   the   NOAA   severe weather reports for a particular day and year.  A   forecast   for   each   of   the   subsequent   years,   including   2014,   have   been   generated.      The   2014   forecast identifies   days   that   are   potential   severe   weather   days,   where   these   days   are   identified   for   a   large number   of   hail   event   activity   and   those   with   the   potential   for   tornado   outbreaks.      The   forecast   also   has 25   of   these   days,   specifically   nominated,   as   days   that   are   a   prediction   (based   on   the   output   of   the model) for large number of hail event activity. An analysis of these forecasts versus the actual reports have demonstrated the following correlations. 2009 Iasoberg Model Forecast 29 of 46 days with 75 or more large hail events were forecast by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred   on   a   day   in   2009   (283)   occurred   on   2009   04   10 which was identified by the model 2010 Iasoberg Model Forecast 9 of 18 days with 75 or more large hail events were forecast by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred   on   a   day   in   2010   (183)   occurred   on   2009   04   10 which was identified by the model 2011 Iasoberg Model Forecast 25 of 43 days with 75 or more large hail events were forecast by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred   on   a   day   in   2011   (266)   occurred   on   2011   05   24 which was identified by the model 2012 Iasoberg Model Forecast 10 of 24 days with 75 or more large hail events were forecast by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred   on   a   day   in   2012   (303)   occurred   on   20120302   which was one day away from a forecast day identified by the model 2013 Iasoberg Model Forecast 8 of 19 days with 75 or more large hail events were forecast by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred   on   a   day   in   2013   (148)   occurred   on   2013   03   18 which was identified by the model For the Excel files that support these findings: Download Hail Excel file1 ; Download Hail Excel file2
The Proof is in the Predictions
© iasoberg.com 2013

History of our Predictions

In   2009   our   research   indicated   that   certain   Iasoberg patterns   correlated   with   severe   weather   activity   in continental     USA.         The     general     iasoberg     output algorithms    were    then    modified    to    identify    these patterns   annually   on   a   daily   basis.      A   study   was   then initiated    in    2009    that    attempted    to    correlate    the outcome   of   revised   model   which   forecast   potential severe   weather   day   in   continental   USA   and   the   NOAA severe weather reports for a particular day and year.  A   forecast   for   each   of   the   subsequent   years,   including 2014,    have    been    generated.        The    2014    forecast identifies    days    that    are    potential    severe    weather days,    where    these    days    are    identified    for    a    large number    of    hail    event    activity    and    those    with    the potential   for   tornado   outbreaks.      The   forecast   also has   25   of   these   days,   specifically   nominated,   as   days that   are   a   prediction   (based   on   the   output   of   the model) for large number of hail event activity. An    analysis    of    these    forecasts    versus    the    actual reports have demonstrated the following correlations. 2009 Iasoberg Model Forecast 29   of   46   days   with   75   or   more   large   hail   events were forecast by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred on   a   day   in   2009   (283)   occurred   on   2009   04   10 which was identified by the model 2010 Iasoberg Model Forecast 9   of   18   days   with   75   or   more   large   hail   events were forecast by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred on   a   day   in   2010   (183)   occurred   on   2009   04   10 which was identified by the model 2011 Iasoberg Model Forecast 25   of   43   days   with   75   or   more   large   hail   events were forecast by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred on   a   day   in   2011   (266)   occurred   on   2011   05   24 which was identified by the model 2012 Iasoberg Model Forecast 10   of   24   days   with   75   or   more   large   hail   events were forecast by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred on   a   day   in   2012   (303)   occurred   on   20120302 which   was   one   day   away   from   a   forecast   day identified by the model 2013 Iasoberg Model Forecast 8   of   19   days   with   75   or   more   large   hail   events were forecast by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred on   a   day   in   2013   (148)   occurred   on   2013   03   18 which was identified by the model For    the    Excel    files    that    support    these    findings: Download Hail Excel file1 ; Download Hail Excel file2
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The Proof is in the Predictions
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