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© iasoberg.com 2013

History

In   2009   our   research   indicated   that   certain   Iasoberg   patterns   correlated   with   severe   weather   activity   in   continental USA.      The   general   iasoberg   output   algorithms   were   then   modified   to   identify   these   patterns   annually   on   a   daily   basis.     A   study   was   then   initiated   in   2009   that   attempted   to   correlate   the   outcome   of   revised   model   which   forecast   potential severe weather day in continental USA and the NOAA severe weather reports for a particular day and year.  A   forecast   for   each   of   the   subsequent   years,   including   2014,   have   been   generated.      The   2014   forecast   identifies   days that   are   potential   severe   weather   days,   where   these   days   are   identified   for   a   large   number   of   hail   event   activity   and those   with   the   potential   for   tornado   outbreaks.     The   forecast   also   has   25   of   these   days,   specifically   nominated,   as   days that are a prediction (based on the output of the model) for large number of hail event activity. An analysis of these forecasts versus the actual reports have demonstrated the following correlations. 2009 Iasoberg Model Forecast 29 of 46 days with 75 or more large hail events were forecast by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred   on   a   day   in   2009   (283)   occurred   on   2009   04   10   which   was identified by the model 2010 Iasoberg Model Forecast 9 of 18 days with 75 or more large hail events were forecast by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred   on   a   day   in   2010   (183)   occurred   on   2009   04   10   which   was identified by the model 2011 Iasoberg Model Forecast 25 of 43 days with 75 or more large hail events were forecast by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred   on   a   day   in   2011   (266)   occurred   on   2011   05   24   which   was identified by the model 2012 Iasoberg Model Forecast 10 of 24 days with 75 or more large hail events were forecast by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred   on   a   day   in   2012   (303)   occurred   on   20120302   which   was   one   day away from a forecast day identified by the model 2013 Iasoberg Model Forecast 8 of 19 days with 75 or more large hail events were forecast by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred   on   a   day   in   2013   (148)   occurred   on   2013   03   18   which   was identified by the model For the Excel files that support these findings: Download Hail Excel file1 ; Download Hail Excel file2
Trace of Pendulum
iasoberg
The Proof is in the Predictions
© iasoberg.com 2013

History

In    2009    our    research    indicated    that    certain    Iasoberg    patterns correlated   with   severe   weather   activity   in   continental   USA.      The general   iasoberg   output   algorithms   were   then   modified   to   identify these   patterns   annually   on   a   daily   basis.     A   study   was   then   initiated   in 2009    that    attempted    to    correlate    the    outcome    of    revised    model which   forecast   potential   severe   weather   day   in   continental   USA   and the NOAA severe weather reports for a particular day and year.  A   forecast   for   each   of   the   subsequent   years,   including   2014,   have been   generated.      The   2014   forecast   identifies   days   that   are   potential severe   weather   days,   where   these   days   are   identified   for   a   large number    of    hail    event    activity    and    those    with    the    potential    for tornado    outbreaks.        The    forecast    also    has    25    of    these    days, specifically   nominated,   as   days   that   are   a   prediction   (based   on   the output of the model) for large number of hail event activity. An    analysis    of    these    forecasts    versus    the    actual    reports    have demonstrated the following correlations. 2009 Iasoberg Model Forecast 29   of   46   days   with   75   or   more   large   hail   events   were   forecast by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred   on   a   day   in 2009   (283)   occurred   on   2009   04   10   which   was   identified   by   the model 2010 Iasoberg Model Forecast 9   of   18   days   with   75   or   more   large   hail   events   were   forecast   by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred   on   a   day   in 2010   (183)   occurred   on   2009   04   10   which   was   identified   by   the model 2011 Iasoberg Model Forecast 25   of   43   days   with   75   or   more   large   hail   events   were   forecast by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred   on   a   day   in 2011   (266)   occurred   on   2011   05   24   which   was   identified   by   the model 2012 Iasoberg Model Forecast 10   of   24   days   with   75   or   more   large   hail   events   were   forecast by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred   on   a   day   in 2012   (303)   occurred   on   20120302   which   was   one   day   away from a forecast day identified by the model 2013 Iasoberg Model Forecast 8   of   19   days   with   75   or   more   large   hail   events   were   forecast   by the model The   highest   number   of   hail   events   that   occurred   on   a   day   in 2013   (148)   occurred   on   2013   03   18   which   was   identified   by   the model For   the   Excel   files   that   support   these   findings:   Download   Hail   Excel file1 ; Download Hail Excel file2
Trace of Pendulum
iasoberg
The Proof is in the Predictions